A study led by Patrick Brown, Associate Professor in the Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Toronto, reveals new insights into Ontario's opioid crisis during the pandemic. From 2003 through 2020, as opioid-related mortality in Ontario, Canada increased five-fold, the age distribution also shifted downward – with rates now peaking for people in their mid-30s.
The study published in PLOS ONE used mortality data from the Office of the Chief Coroner for Ontario and applied novel statistical methods to analyse how the demographic makeup of deaths has changed over time.
“For this study we wanted to look at opioid mortality over time and take a deeper dive into data than many have before,” said Brown who explained that often official data is rounded to five-year age groups which can blur important details. “The data provided by the Chief Coroner is also very timely and gives us a more accurate picture of what’s happening now and who is being impacted which can ultimately help inform policy.”
U of T researchers find opioid-related deaths increasing and affecting more younger adults
April 21, 2022, by Kate Richards - U of T Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy
From 2003 through 2020, as opioid-related mortality in Ontario, Canada increased five-fold, the age distribution also shifted downward – with rates now peaking for people in their mid-30s – according to a new study published in PLOS ONE.
Led by Patrick Brown, Associate Professor in the Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Toronto, the study used mortality data from the Office of the Chief Coroner for Ontario and applied novel statistical methods to analyse how the demographic makeup of deaths has changed over time.
“For this study we wanted to look at opioid mortality over time and take a deeper dive into data than many have before,” said Brown who explained that often official data is rounded to five-year age groups which can blur important details. “The data provided by the Chief Coroner is also very timely and gives us a more accurate picture of what’s happening now and who is being impacted which can ultimately help inform policy.”
Specifically, the study found that from 2003 to 2020, there were 11,633 opioid-related deaths in Ontario aged 15 through 69. Overall, 72 per cent of opioid-related deaths during the study period were male, and accidental deaths accounted for 82 per cent of the deaths. Using a Bayesian modelling approach, the authors estimate that in 2003, mortality rates reached maximums at 5.5 deaths per 100,000 person-years for males around age 44 and 2.2 deaths per 100,000 person-years for females around age 51. As of 2020, rates have reached maximums at 67.2 deaths per 100,000 person-years for males around age 35 and 16.8 deaths per 100,000 person-years for females around age 37.
“We are seeing that deaths increased across all age categories but that twenty years ago, most deaths were occurring in people aged 40 to 50. Now we are observing a drop in age where most deaths are occurring among people in their 30s,” Brown said.